Prediction platform Poly Market has released its updated Ballon d’Or rankings following the conclusion of the FIFA World Cup, naming Spain and Barcelona star Lamine Yamal as the leading favorite to win football’s most prestigious individual award.
According to the latest projections, Yamal has a 51% chance of claiming the Ballon d’Or, making him the clear frontrunner. The young Spanish winger has continued to impress with his outstanding performances and is widely regarded as one of the brightest talents in world football.
England captain and Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane ranks second on the list with an estimated 27% probability of winning the award.
Eight-time Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi is third with 8%, while France forward Kylian Mbappe follows with 4%, according to the platform’s latest predictions.
The rankings reflect current market expectations and are subject to change as players continue their performances throughout the season and in upcoming international competitions.


